现在就预测通货膨胀

For this discussion I went back to the Raub报告s in February and March 2009 as the stock market crash ended and inflation was a big topic then, 太.

2021年通胀率

Inflation has become a significant issue on our national economy in the past 6 months with the October reading a shocking 6.2%年化, when we have barely reached 2% annually over the past 10 years, 自所谓的大衰退以来. 这是30年来最快的增速.

健康经济中的通货膨胀

It is generally accepted that 2% inflation is a sign of a healthy, growing economy and this has been the Federal Reserve’s (FED) target. 但新冠疫情让一切都失去了平衡. Will this inflation be “transitory” just as we hope the pandemic will become and the supply chain disruptions? 还是通货膨胀会持续更长时间，持续更长时间, 就像70年代那样，1974年失业率飙升至11%以上, 1979年和1980年? 今年以来，工资水平全面上涨, 因为劳动力短缺, 然而, 这被更高的通货膨胀率所抵消. 而且总有一种新的Covid变体需要担心.

通货膨胀到底是什么?

通货膨胀可以描述为，

货币的实际价值下降或稀释.
2)购买力下降.
3)货币购买力的稀释.

That is to say, your dollar buys less goods and services than it once did. Inflation is really the government creating 太 much money and this waters down the buying power of the existing money supply. Prices going up are actually a result of inflation and your dollar just buys less stuff.

通货膨胀是好事还是坏事?

Economists agree that a small amount of inflation is healthy for the economy. 我们的人口增长了大约1.每年7%, so we need to create about 2 million new jobs yearly and we need to grow our GDP at about that rate, 太. The FED’s primary mandates are “full” employment and to control inflation and they accomplish this by means of controlling the money supply through interest rates. Now, we have negative real rates, as inflation is much higher than interest rates. 这实际上是对每个人征税, falling hardest on the low income earners who cannot hedge inflation by owning investments that are expanding with inflation.

通货膨胀的来源

The source of inflation is both the huge monetary stimulus injected by Congress and then the FEDs intervention in the markets by buying treasuries, 抵押贷款和公司债券. 2008年，美联储的账面上还不到1万亿美元. 在新冠肺炎之前，它做到了 升级了400%，达到4万亿美元，现在是8万亿美元.6万亿年.  然而, it is beginning to taper its $120-billion per month bond and mortgage purchasing which will end in June, 因此他们的资产负债表将停止增长. It is assumed then it will shrink as these investments mature and payoff, and are not replaced.

利率

One thing is very certain – interest rates are raising and will rise several points in the next 2 years. This is because the economy is recovering and demand for loans is expected to climb. 如果通货膨胀持续下去, 正如大多数人所料, the FED will try to limit excessive inflation by raising the underlying FED funds rate. This dampens demand for loans as they become more expensive, but runs the risk of tipping the U.S. 就像美联储一再做的那样. Higher federal interest rates also compete with the stock and real estate market for new investments. Right now, no one is very happy with nearly no income from C.D.s. 如果利率上升, 然后3%到4%的收益率又变得有吸引力了, 与动荡的股市相比. Especially, if and when we tip into a bear market and recession. 钱喜欢去安全的地方.

通货膨胀对商业地产的影响是什么?

CRE acts as a store of value so that when the money supply is inflating, 那么你的房产价值就会上升, 太. Part of this comes from the intrinsic value of land and buildings and part comes from the income stream.

Commercial leases vary in length and thus the ability to respond to inflation. The shortest term leases are in apartments and self-storage which typically lock in rates for 6 to 12 months before renewing with the possibility of a rate increase by the owner. 另一方面, 办公室, industrial and retail leases generally run from 3 to 5 years in length and then, some leases to major companies for large spaces may run ten years with renewal options. 这些租约通常包括固定的租金上涨, often fixed at two to three percent per year to account for inflation. That has worked fine for the past decade when inflation has generally averaged below 2% annually but now with the potential for persistently higher inflation in store, these Landlords may end up behind inflation’s push rather than on top or head of it.

在通货膨胀高度不确定的时期, 比如20世纪70年代, 房租上涨与消费者物价指数密切相关. 在过去的几年里, 然而, CPI has not been used as an index to increase rents; just a fixed annual increase of, 说2%, 租金要跟上预期的通货膨胀. Now, I expect that CPI adjustments will be re-introduced into lease negotiations. Bottom line – the Landlord wants the ability to raise his rents as fast, 或者比通货膨胀率快. Landlords want short leases with CPI escalations, Tenants want long term fixed rate leases.

通货膨胀如何影响你的抵押贷款?

The value of your mortgage is being paid down by your monthly payments of principle. But inflation helps you because your mortgage is declining in real dollars as the value of the dollar declines. 你是在用膨胀的美元偿还债务. And the value of the property is, hopefully, going up faster along with the pace of inflation. 所以你的权益, which is a smaller part of your property’s value is going up at the rate of inflation while the real value of your mortgage is declining, 放大你投资的增值.

利率接近历史低点, it is absolutely time to put in long term low interest loans to maximize the value of your investment and lock in your biggest cost, 利息费用, 未来几十年.

Commercial Real Estate can perform well in an inflationary period because,

1)属性, 就像黄金, is a store of value (I am not going to address crypto currencies which need more time to sort out their volatility).

租金可以提高以跟上通货膨胀的步伐.

3)贷款的实际美元价值下降.

现在最好预测通货膨胀.