生存才能茁壮成长

在我们接近尾声的时候, 非常动荡的一年, it is fair to ask “Where are we and where are we going?”  In fact, I get asked this question all the time.  很明显, we are not at the end of the rate-hiking cycle by the FED and that dominates the conversation.

Real Estate and its Relationship with Interest Rates

正如我在过去几个月里所说的那样, real estate is an interest rate sensitive industry, 因为它是由债务驱动的.  通常, the lender is investing 60% to 80% in a commercial property purchase, 在住宅中高达95%.  贷款人在交易中的成本, 作为利息费用, is a dominant factor in making a transaction “pencil”.

当利息支出翻倍时, lots of transactions are no longer as profitable and may be totally undoable.  Couple that with big inflation in construction materials, the issue of scarce labor (how far down are you on your electrician’s list?) and the doubling of interest expense for a buyer, it is not a pretty picture.

Now the rebuilding from the Florida hurricane will use up lots of construction materials, which are then not available for new home construction. That being said, home mortgage demand is currently at its lowest since 1997!

这是经济衰退

A Recession is two or more successive quarters of negative GDP.  2022年第一季度和第二季度一直是负增长.  然而，Q3为正2.6%; however, if you take out our shipments of LNG to Europe, Q3 GDP is also negative.  因此，我们正处于经济衰退之中.

多户家庭是最受打击的

I am a member of a brokers group that meets monthly.  最近, I asked how many had lost deals to interest rate hikes in the past couple of months and half raised their hands.  多户家庭受到的打击最大, with some lenders withdrawing from the market completely and those still in the market are overwhelmed with deals from which to pick.

工业

工业 is still steaming along with about 8-milion square feet under construction currently.  Nearly all industrial construction is speculative space, 因为这就是工业开发商所做的, 但这些天它很快就消失了.

2022年第三季度是第8个季度^th consecutive quarter that demand (represented by net absorption) outpaced supply, 9年纪录, 据Partners房地产公司称.   然而, Amazon stopped work on its Weidner I-35 site and the Loop 1604 Northwest Military site has never started; they are finishing their 1-million SF facility on Hwy 90 at Loop 1604 and similar on east side near IH-10 and Loop 410.

零售租赁

零售 leasing is still strong and pad site sales are strong, but new construction not so much as   construction costs are up a lot and not coming down.

零售租赁价格强劲，而且还在上升. 中心的空置率极低，只有3%.5%, despite nearly 1-million square feet of space being delivered to the market this year, 其中84%是预租的，另外850个,000平方英尺在管道中, 76%的房屋已预租.

So, underneath the slowing in construction is an increasing shortage of space.  当利率降低时，这将创造繁荣.

圣安东尼奥办事处的增长

办公室 growth in 圣安东尼奥 is solid making us the 16^th 美国最好的.S., with 800,000 SF of leasing activity per quarter, a very healthy pace, 根据Co-Star Group.  Sublease space (space that is leased but the tenant would like to find someone else to lease from them) has risen substantially through the Covid period.

Vacancies have increased from 9-10% last year to 12% this year, yet rents are still growing at a 2.2%的速度.  There is about 2-million SF of new office space under construction, 根据Co-Star, 大约占我们总库存的2%.

This is a good pace, but not compared to Austin’s super-aggressive pace of 9.5-million SF of office space under construction, which is 7% of inventory.  与此同时, a developer is breaking ground on a 72-story high rise, to be the largest in Austin and one of the largest in Texas.

办公室租赁条款变更

总的来说，在美国.S., office leases are getting smaller with shorter terms as companies seek to minimize their occupancy risk.  The Work From 365bet苹果客户端 trend versus back to the desk paradigm are still in conflict and may take another year for companies to sort out.

公寓的租金

公寓租金上涨了5%.截至9月6日的三个月利率为2%. 30th of this year, compared to 2021, and asking rents spiked 17.9% in the 圣安东尼奥 area from before Covid, reaching $1,242 a month, according to CoStar.  Capitalization Rates on apartments have moved from 3.5% up to over 5%, a whopping decrease in value (over-value?) 40%.

投资销售

Investment sales have slowed a lot, with many sellers and buyers going to the side lines now.

The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index® decreased by 7% in October. Rising interest rates have caused property prices to decline by 13% this year.

“It’s a simple story: higher yields on Treasury bonds equals higher cap rates,彼得·罗塞蒙德说, 格林街战略研究的联合主管. “And as large as the decline in pricing has been, I don’t think we’re out of the woods. If the 10-year note stays above 4%, property prices are likely to keep falling.”

CBRE announced that the commercial investment volume has fallen 24% year-over-year this year.

圣安东尼奥在就业增长方面排名第三 

圣安东尼奥, however, is fairing better compared to the rest of the U.S. 我们在就业增长方面排名第三，为1.5%, with Austin hitting #1, making the Austin-圣安东尼奥 Corridor the top spot in the U.S. 的.! Interestingly, the largest job loser is San Francisco.   8月份，我们的失业率仅为3%.7%，低于德州的4%.1%.  圣安东尼奥实际上增加了170人,自2020年4月大流行爆发以来，已有5000个工作岗位, 据Partners房地产公司称 – and they all own a car and drive on Loop 1604.

So, our market is doing pretty good, despite the difficulties we are facing.

我的口号是: “在23年生存，在24年茁壮成长。.”

这对你有用吗?